Republican Dan Sullivan is projected to beat Democrat candidate Mary Peltola by 5.8 points. Rep. Nick Begich III has a roughly 90% chance of holding his GOP House seat. Republican gubernatorial candidate Bernadette Wilson is projected to win by over 10 points with an 85.5% probability.
That's not three separate races trending red. That's every statewide race in Alaska, all at once.
The numbers come from Pollsmax, a polling aggregate that ran 100,000 simulations of Alaska's 2026 races. The results aren't close. They aren't "leaning." They're a clean sweep at blowout margins — governor, Senate, House — going to the GOP in a state Democrats spent years and millions trying to make competitive.
Senator Sullivan, the Republican incumbent, faces former Democratic House Representative Mary Peltola in the Senate race. Peltola made national headlines when she won Alaska's at-large House seat, becoming the first Alaska Native to serve in Congress. Democrats treated that victory as proof Alaska was in play. The Pollsmax model says otherwise — Sullivan's 5.8-point projected margin suggests Peltola's statewide appeal has a ceiling, and she's already hit it.
Nick Begich III, who currently holds the at-large House seat Peltola once occupied, sits at roughly 90% probability of reelection. That's not a competitive race. That's a formality with a November date attached to it.
The governor's race might be the most telling number on the board. With Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy term-limited, the open seat attracted Democratic front-runner Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins. Wilson, the Republican candidate, is projected to beat him by double digits. In an open-seat race — traditionally the best opportunity for a party flip — Democrats aren't even within striking distance.
Alaska adopted ranked-choice voting — a system that was supposed to help moderate and Democratic candidates survive in red-leaning states. When voters tried to repeal RCV, the measure failed by just over 700 votes out of more than 320,000 cast. The margin was razor-thin. The RCV repeal will appear on the November ballot again, and this time the political environment is significantly less friendly to the people who wanted to keep it.
Democrats invested heavily in the theory that Alaska was purple. Peltola's House win was the centerpiece of that argument. But a House race in a ranked-choice system with a fractured Republican field is a very different animal than a statewide Senate campaign against an incumbent with a 5.8-point cushion.
Three races. Three projected Republican wins. Three margins that aren't close enough to trigger a recount, a legal challenge, or even a particularly late election night.
Sometimes purple is just a shade of red that hasn't finished drying.
